Secular Bull - Focused Investments

Better known by its XOI symbol, this index had an average month-end market-capitalization-weighted-average P/E ratio of 12.3x in 2007. Meanwhile the broader S&P 500 (SPX), which also includes the large American oil stocks in the XOI, had a comparable average 2007 P/E of 20.2x. Thus the oil stocks were trading at about a 39% discount to the general stock markets over this 2007 baseline period.

At the end of last month as oil stocks languished along with the general stocks, the XOI sported an MCWA P/E ratio of 11.1x compared to the SPX’s 17.7x. This discount is only 37%, which is in line with pre-panic precedent and implies oil-stock valuations were slightly ahead of 2007’s average. Given this late-June P/E-ratio comparison, how can oil stocks be considered undervalued today?

There are other ways to gauge a sector’s valuation beyond P/E ratios, and these are where oil stocks look like a tremendous bargain. Oil stocks have two primary drivers, the oil price and the state of the general stock markets. Each of these drivers also offers an excellent alternative valuation metric, and these really reveal the widespread extent of oil-stock undervaluation today.

Stock prices are ultimately driven by profits, and oil-price gains naturally lead to leveraged increases in profits for oil producers. The higher the average oil price, the better the oil-stock profits, and hence the higher oil stocks will be bid by investors. Rising oil prices also generate excitement for oil stocks among traders, leading to increasing flows of capital into the oil-stock sector. So oil’s impact is obviously large.

But interestingly the general stock markets are another major driver of oil stocks, often eclipsing oil’s own influence. I did a study of XOI performance versus oil and the SPX a couple years ago that highlights this crucial fact. The large oil stocks of the XOI are so massive, with so much mainstream capital invested, that they mirror and often amplify underlying moves in the general markets. Even when oil is strong, oil stocks have a tough time rallying if the stock markets are weak.

Looking at oil stocks relative to either of their primary drivers today really drives home the great bargains to be found in this seriously-undervalued sector. The easiest way to quantify the relationships between drivers and the stocks they move is through ratio analysis. Ratios simply divide the sector driven (oil stocks in this case) by its primary driver. The resulting number charted over time reveals important tradable trends in relative strength and weakness.

We’ll start with the XOI/Oil Ratio, which is the daily close of the XOI oil-stock index divided by the daily close in oil (benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude). This ratio is rendered below in blue, superimposed over the raw XOI itself in red. Compared to oil, oil stocks are definitely undervalued today. Odds are high this valuation gap will close in the coming year, either by oil stocks rallying or oil falling.

Thanks to the stock panic and its aftermath, both the XOI and XOI/Oil Ratio (XOR) have been on a wild ride over the past couple years. Driven by record oil prices in early 2008, the XOI climbed to an all-time high of 1630 in May that year. Oil averaged $125 that month, before topping itself a couple months later at an astounding $146 per barrel. But as this ratio shows, oil stocks lagged oil’s terminal ascent.

The ratio hit a low of 9.6x on the very day in July 2008 when oil topped. Just like today, the ratio was far too low to be sustainable. Either oil stocks had to soar to reflect the higher prevailing oil prices or oil had to correct so the low oil-stock levels were justified. Back then, oil corrected as it should have. This commodity was wildly overbought at the time, trading 40% above its baseline 200-day moving average. For comparison the 2006 and 2007 average was less than 7%, and in April 2010 it peaked under 17%.

As oil corrected sharply (down 23% in the first 5 weeks) in the summer of 2008, oil stocks followed it lower but weren’t falling as fast as crude. Hence the ratio rose in Q3’08. Then when the terrible stock panic hit, oil stocks plunged with the SPX which again drove the ratio to unsustainable lows. But after the XOI bottomed in late November, oil stocks started recovering fast. This index’s initial rally was a blistering 31% in less than 4 weeks! Since oil was still drifting lower at the time, the XOR soared dramatically.

These abnormally-high ratio readings persisted until oil bottomed near $34 in February 2009. At that point oil started rallying significantly while the XOI sold off with the SPX into the latter’s infamous March 2009 despair lows. Ever since, during the strong SPX cyclical bull that was born then, oil stocks have been persistently lagging oil. While the giant XOI oil stocks were advancing with the general markets, they weren’t rallying as fast as oil which inexorably drove the XOR lower.

The result is the ratio downtrend rendered above. While the XOI managed to rally 49% at best since its panic lows, crude oil has soared 152% higher at best out of its own nadir. In the month before the SPX correction started in late April 2010, the XOR averaged 13.2x. The XOI was closing at around 13x the price of crude oil. This is actually on the low end of this chart, even if you ignore the anomalous panic spike.

At oil stocks’ best levels relative to oil since last summer, the XOR ran 15.5x in September 2009. This week, thanks to the devastated sentiment in the wake of the SPX and oil corrections and BP oil spill, the XOR was only trading at 12.3x. In order for the XOI to return to similar levels relative to today’s $76 oil price, it would have to rally 26% from today’s levels. But the extent of oil-stock undervaluation relative to oil runs well beyond this comparison.

In all of 2006 and 2007, the last baseline normal years before 2008’s wild panic volatility, the XOR averaged 17.9x. The XOI tended to close around 18x the price of crude oil. For the oil stocks to regain this historic relationship, the XOI would have to surge 45% above today’s levels! There is every reason to expect this relationship to normalize, as oil stocks play such a crucial role in both the world economy and investors’ long-term portfolios. Capital simply has to return to this unloved sector.

Now 26% to 45% gains in elite oil stocks are certainly enticing, but these projections are conservative on a couple key fronts. First, these are based off of oil prices staying stable at today’s $76. If oil continues rallying, as it is highly likely to as this SPX cyclical bull regains steam, the XOI targets quickly climb higher. Not only are higher oil prices plugged into the denominator of the ratio, but strong oil rapidly multiplies investor interest and hence capital inflows into oil stocks.

Second, smaller oil stocks are likely to really amplify the baseline XOI gains. Remember that the XOI oil stocks are the giants of the industry, majors with huge market capitalizations that have stock-price inertia much like oil supertankers. At the end of last month, the average market cap of the 13 XOI component stocks was $75b compared to the average SPX component size of under $20b. Smaller oil stocks have far greater potential to rally, and they could easily double or triple the underlying XOI gains.

While the undervaluation of oil stocks compared to oil is plenty compelling, even more so is their chronic undervaluation compared to the broader stock markets. The XOI/SPX Ratio (XSR) beautifully quantifies this. Incredibly, relative to the general stock markets oil stocks were recently trading well under their panic lows! There is probably no greater sector bargain today than these beaten-down oil stocks.

Back in early 2008 as oil soared towards $146, oil stocks rapidly advanced far outpacing the SPX gains. Of course the general stock markets were suffering in a new cyclical bear then, so the XOI’s relative strength was even more impressive. But once oil started correcting in July 2008, the oil stocks fell way faster than the SPX. This trend accelerated during the stock panic, when commodities stocks were hit disproportionately hard since mainstream money managers consider them to be exceptionally risky.

While the XOI bottomed in late November 2008 at the formal panic low, the SPX ground lower into its despair lows in March 2009 on fears of the newly-elected Marxists radically raising already-crushing taxes on American investors. The XOI recovering faster than the SPX between November 2008 and March 2009 drove the XSR higher again and oil stocks approached their best levels relative to the general markets since the summer of 2008 when oil was so high.

But ever since then, as the SPX cyclical bull powered higher, oil stocks have been falling farther and farther behind the general markets. The ratio downtrend has been relentless as you can see above, with the XOI massively lagging the SPX. When the SPX topped before its recent correction in late April 2010, this ratio was running 0.93x. This was not far above its panic lows of just under 0.89x. Even before the SPX corrected, oil stocks were almost as deeply out of favor as they had been in the bowels of the panic!

And since that correction started, oil stocks have again plunged disproportionately hard. The SPX correction not only killed sentiment in general along with the appetite for risk (and hence commodities stocks), but it drove a concurrent sharp 20% correction in oil itself. With both of oil stocks’ primary drivers down sharply, the oil stocks didn’t stand a chance. Despite already being very cheap relative to the SPX in late April, they plunged even lower.

On top of this, the Obama Administration inexplicably decided to demonize the entire oil industry over a single blowout which a single oil company was responsible for. It reminded me of kindergarten, when an inept socialist teacher punishes her entire class for the misbehavior of a single child. As Washington relentlessly attacked the critical oil industry as a whole, already-weak oil-stock sentiment sunk even lower.

The result was a mind-blowing disconnect between oil stocks and the broader stock markets. At worst in early June, the XOI/SPX Ratio plummeted under 0.84x! This was well under its panic lows, and the worst seen since March 2007 when oil was only trading around $62. By that point in our recent correction, oil was back up to $74 (almost 20% higher). Oil stocks were deeply oversold and incredibly undervalued.

Is this the new normal, the relative value of oil stocks compared to oil and the SPX continuing to shrink or remaining low forever? Almost certainly not. Oil remains the lifeblood of the world economy. There is no commodity more important. Without oil, nothing else could be transported and our whole intricate global supply chain of everything physical including food would collapse. The companies that produce this all-important cost-effective and efficient portable energy source are going to remain great investments for decades to come.

And oil prices are almost certain to continue rising on balance too, farther increasing oil-stock profitability and demand among investors. Half the world (Asia) continues to rapidly industrialize, which necessitates massive increases in per-capita oil consumption. Meanwhile new oil reserves, especially the highly-prized light-sweet crude that is easy to refine, are getting harder and harder to find. Companies like BP aren’t drilling under a mile of water because it is fun, but because large new oil reserves are almost never found on land anymore. And when they rarely are, the oil is usually in tough-to-produce sands and shales.

As oil demand growth accelerates and supply growth continues to constrict in the coming years, it is hard to imagine oil companies not regaining favor among investors. These companies take big risks and generate huge profit streams, along with high dividend yields that retiring investors (baby boomers) crave. It is almost impossible to imagine a future where investors don’t once again start funneling huge amounts of capital into oil stocks and driving their prices much higher.

At Zeal we’ve been aggressively buying smaller high-potential oil stocks lately to game this coming valuation-normalization trend. The current issue of our acclaimed Zeal Intelligence newsletter discusses not only the oil spill’s psychological impact on oil stocks and the broader markets, but looks at one of the most-exciting emerging oilfields in the United States today and the small producers that are thriving in it. The oil stocks we’ve been buying and recommending ought to easily double or triple the XOI’s gains.

If you’re interested in commodities stocks in general, subscribe today to our immensely valuable and practical monthly or weekly subscription newsletters. We continually analyze the stock markets and commodities to uncover high-probability-for-success entry and exit points in high-potential commodities stocks. New Zeal Intelligence subscribers will receive a complimentary copy of our popular July issue focused on smaller emerging oil stocks.

The bottom line is oil stocks are deeply oversold and tremendously undervalued today. The concurrent general-stock-market and oil corrections, along with the horrendous oil-spill psychology, have left oil stocks one of the most unloved and underappreciated sectors in the stock markets. Despite healthy oil prices and endless future oil demand, investors have largely abandoned this sector and left it for dead.

But like all market anomalies driven by extreme sentiment, this one too will soon pass. As the stock markets and oil recover, capital will increasingly flow back into beaten-down oil stocks and drive up their prices. In addition to gradually bringing their valuations back in line with historic norms relative to their two primary drivers, this normalization will create great opportunities in smaller high-potential oil stocks.

Adam Hamilton, CPA

July 23, 2010

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